This is the first bear market in Bitcoin history in which it has given back more than 100% of the previous bull market, and the first time we’ve had a new low after a bear market. It has been going on for 110 days, which is about average for a bear market. The weighted average bear-market loss has been 61%, and we hit 62%. ” - Alkesh Shah, Bank of Americaĭan Morehead: We’ve been doing this for 10 years and have seen six big cycles. “For us to see a crypto winter, we would need to see people leaving the ecosystem.Instead, we’re seeing the opposite. That indicates crypto is going to be much more volatile, with a lot more upside and downside risk. Is down about 30% from its high, and crypto is off 60%. And there aren’t any fundamental valuation models to underpin crypto, especially currencies like Bitcoin with no intrinsic value. The factors that seem to be driving other risky assets, including the path of inflation, interest rates, and liquidity conditions, all seem to be driving crypto.
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It’s a consolidation period for a risk asset.Įswar Prasad: It’s not acting like a unique asset class. Instead, we’re seeing the opposite, with more institutional, corporate, and developer activity. For us to see a crypto winter, we would need to see people leaving the ecosystem-less institutional and corporate engagement, less developer activity. Is this cold stretch comparable?Īlkesh Shah: This asset class is correlated with risk assets like technology, and that sector has corrected due to factors like rising interest rates and inflation.
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Barron’s: Bitcoin is down 60% from peak prices, and it’s looking like another “crypto winter.” In the prior one, Bitcoin lost 82% of its value and took three years to return to its previous high.